How hot was Sept 2023?

September 2023 set a record for a monthly anomaly, but when you read something that says it was surprising, outrageous, crazy, etc., you are being misled. As far as I’m concerned, this is the media making matters worse. A new record anomaly like September is expected, and, in fact, it will happen again. Suggesting that scientists didn’t know this implies that they aren’t credible. Please read the full argument here and while you are there, subscribe to my Substack Briefed by Data. You can subscribe for free and get data-based articles right in your inbox.

Summary from NOAA, which has the data available:

The September global surface temperature was 1.44°C (2.59°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F), making it the warmest September on record. September 2023 marked the 49th-consecutive September and the 535th-consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th-century average. September 2023 was 0.46°C (0.83°F) above the previous record from September 2020, and marks the largest positive monthly global temperature anomaly of any month on record. The September 2023 global temperature anomaly surpassed the previous record-high monthly anomaly from March 2016 by 0.09°C (0.16°F). The past ten Septembers (2014–2023) have been the warmest Septembers on record.

Looking for a Climate/Math Faculty Job?

 

I’m doing this post as a favor and because this is a unique faculty position that I’m happy to promote. If you are interested or know someone who might be then please pass it along.

Harvey Mudd College invites applications for a tenure-track position, beginning Fall 2024, at the assistant professor level. Exceptional candidates at higher ranks will be considered. The position is jointly held through the Hixon Center for Climate and the Environment (HCCE) and the Department of Mathematics. All areas in the mathematical sciences that align with the HCCE goals will be considered, with preference given to candidates who can significantly contribute to our course offerings and develop a shared vision for climate and environmental studies at a liberal arts college of science and engineering.

For more information go here.

Is global warming speeding up?

My question here is largely rhetorical. Global warming trends have been roughly quadratic for decades and that means the rate of increase is increasing. Still, the NTY thinks this is something new to write about in their article I Study Climate Change. The Data Is Telling Us Something New (10/13/2023) with this first sentence:

Staggering. Unnerving. Mind-boggling. Absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.

I provide a response to this article in my Briefed by Data post A Response to a NYT Climate Article, suggesting that this first sentence is just alarmism. The article includes an animation illustrating that quadratic functions have increasing slopes and so the NYT image here is not surprising. Also, one should ask why the lines on this graph are over different periods.

Please check it out the Briefed by Data article. The basic conclusion is that yes, warming is speeding up, which is bad, but at the same time nothing we are seeing now is all that surprising or unpredictable.

Which energy source uses the most minerals?

Here is an excerpt from my Briefed by Data post Minerals for renewables:

A few things stand out. The first is the amount of minerals utilized for offshore wind, which is 50% more than for the next category, onshore wind. The second factor is the importance of copper in all energy sources. Figure 2 shows the copper price from FRED. Prior to 2004, the price remained below 3,000 per metric ton, and it has climbed around four to five times since then.

The post includes links to the IEA data plus other graphs. If you aren’t getting the Briefed by Data newsletter in your inbox then consider subscribing when you read the post.

How should we measure energy subsidies?

In my post of the same name on Briefed by Data I make the case that normalizing energy subsidies by BTU in the same year is misleading. If you do so you get the graph here and can make statements like solar gets 300x more subsidies than nuclear per BTU.

In fact, solar subsidies per BTU are higher than for every other energy source, including wind (solar is 4.4 times higher) and oil and gas (solar is 135 times higher). This metric has three flaws, in my opinion.

Read the three reasons I give. The post includes links to the EIA data.

How hot was August 2023?

From my post of the same name on Briefed by Data. Figure 1 shows that the August 2023 anomaly was a record for August by a half degree Fahrenheit, or about a 30% increase over the previous record in 2016. Here is what NOAA has to say about August 2023:

The August global surface temperature was 1.25°C (2.25°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F), making it the warmest August on record. This marked the first time an August temperature exceeded 1.0°C (1.8°F) above the long-term average. August 2023 was 0.29°C (0.52°F) warmer than the previous August record from 2016, but the anomaly was 0.10°C (0.18°F) lower than the all-time highest monthly temperature anomaly on record (March 2016). However, the August 2023 temperature anomaly was the third-highest anomaly of any month on record.

Links to the data are in the post, plus two other graphs.

Who emits the most CO2?

Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita by income decile in selected countries and regions, 2021, from the IEA.

In my post over at Briefed by Data, CO2 emissions are an inequality problem, I report on an IEA article about how much those with higher incomes emit more energy-related CO2.

To put it another way, if the top 10% decreased their CO2 emissions to the level of the next 10%, they would save 30t per person, which is just 2t less than what the lowest 50% currently emits. What should we expect the rest of the population to do if the wealthy aren’t going to make significant lifestyle changes?

Read other articles like this at Briefed by Data.

How does an increasing mean impact maximum temperatures?

In my recent Briefed by Data post How rising mean temperatures affect maximums I use a simple simulation to help understand climate change and the impact increasing mean temperatures have on maximum temperatures. For example,

We expect a roughly 50% increase in summers with temperatures over 100°F over the first 50 years of the rising temperature scenario, followed by a 5-fold rise during the next 50 years. One important thing to note is that, compared to no change, the slow rise in temperature won’t be felt as much in the first 50 years. In the scenario of rising temperatures, even the difference between the first 50 and the second 50 is tripled. In essence, nothing is noticeably bad until it is.

Read more over at Substack and consider subscribing to my newsletter Briefed by Data.

How hot was July 2023?

I did a full summary of July on Briefed by Data and here is a  highlights from the post.

First, Figure 1 represents the July historical temperature anomaly. It was certainly a record-setting year for July, on the order of 0.75 °F above the previous record anomaly. It should be noted that ENSO status will not be formally determined for some months. How does this compare to all months?

July’s anomaly was not even a top 10 for a month (see Figure 2 in the post) but it was a warmest month on record, but this is an artifact of July being the warmest month of the year in general. Read more here which includes links to the data.

Why can’t we just stop oil?


We don’t use oil for just gasoline and one of the key uses of a barrel of oil is the binding agent for asphalt, which electric cars also desire. From my We Can’t Just Stop Oil post on Briefed by Data:

Oil is refined by heating it, and different types of oil are boiled off at different temperatures. Figure 3 displays this. The issue is that one of the first products to boil out is gasoline, and the last is asphalt. You can’t just take a barrel of crude oil and say, “I just want asphalt.” Consider it like this: if you want any of the items in Figure 3’s list, you also get everything above them.

There are some bio substitutes such as vegetable oil, but the bottom line is getting rid of oil isn’t that simple. Read more at We Can’t Just Stop Oil and consider subscribing to Briefed by Data.