Sustainability Math A Quantitative Literacy and Mathematics Resource for Instructors

If you’d like local trends of sea level rise then check out NOAA’s Sea Level Trends page.

The sea level trends measured by tide gauges that are presented here are local relative sea level (RSL) trends as opposed to the global sea level trend. Tide gauge measurements are made with respect to a local fixed reference on land. RSL is a combination of the sea level rise and the local vertical land motion.

On the landing page you are greeted with a map with colored arrows. The arrows point up for an increase and down for a decrease in sea level locally. The color of the arrow is represents magnitude. Click on an arrow to get details. For instance for Ocean City, MD we learn

The relative sea level trend is 6.05 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.73 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1975 to 2021 which is equivalent to a change of 1.98 feet in 100 years.

Note that the 100 year projection assume a linear increase, which may not be the case. The pop up box includes links to four times of graphs. The one presented here is the linear trend graph. Under the graph for average seasonal cycle we learn

The average seasonal cycle of mean sea level, caused by regular fluctuations in coastal temperatures, salinities, winds, atmospheric pressures, and ocean currents, is shown along with each month’s 95% confidence interval.

The graphs include links to the data. Great QL resource and a place to get ample time series data.

The World Bank Data Blog provides information on food prices in the article Food prices eased but risks remain elevated by John Baffes & Kaltrina Temaj (11/21/2022)

The World Bank’s Food Price Index declined 12% in the third quarter of 2022 (q/q) after reaching an all-time high in April. The index remains almost 20% higher than a year ago.  In domestic currency terms, however, food prices remain elevated due to currency deprecations. Food prices are expected to fall 5% in 2023 before stabilizing in 2024. Despite the expected declines, most food prices will remain high by historical norms. The forecasts are also subjected to numerous risks.

The article has total of 7 graphs, most of them are interactive, and interesting information:

Supply disruptions, increasing production costs, and appreciation of the U.S. dollar have exerted upward pressure on domestic food price inflation in most countries.  Food price inflation in South Asia averaged 20% in the first three quarters of 2022 (y/y); the average for most other regions was 14%. The exception was the East Asia and the Pacific region where food price inflation averaged just 6%, in part due to stable rice prices, a key staple in the region.

There are links to the data but it may take some work to get it. This is a rich QL article. For example, a good assignment is use the graph to verify the percentages in the first quote above.

From NOAA’s October 2022 Global Climate Report:

October 2022 was the fourth-warmest October in NOAA’s 143-year record. The October global surface temperature was 1.60°F (0.89°C) above the 20th-century average of 57.1°F (14.0°C). The past seven Octobers were among the ten warmest Octobers on record.

A few highlights:

Europe had its warmest October on record at 2.6°C (4.6°F) above the 1910-2000 average. This surpassed the previous record, set in 2020, by 0.38°C (0.68°F). More than seven countries in Europe recorded their warmest or joint-warmest October on record.

Austria had its warmest October on record. Austria’s national weather service reported that the average temperature was 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline in the lowlands, and 4.0°C warmer in the mountains.

According to MeteoSwiss, Switzerland had its warmest October since the country began its records in 1865, with an average temperature 3.7°C above the 1991-2020 average.

Belgium tied 2001 for its warmest October on record, 3.1°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average, according to Belgium’s Royal Meteorological Institute.

MeteoFrance reported that France had its warmest October since records began in 1945, about 3.5°C above the 1991-2020 normal.

The time series data is available near the top of the page under Additional Resources.

From Our World in Data’s post Data Update: We’ve just updated all of our global CO2 emissions data by Pablo Rosado, Hannah Ritchie, and Edouard Mathieu (11/11/2022):

There is one major update in this year’s carbon budget.

National emissions data was only available for CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes (such as cement production). It did not include emissions from land use change.

This year’s update – for the first time – now includes land use estimates for countries, extending back to 1750.

The CO2 Data Explorer is a great tool.  Users can select countries, different emission types (cement is interesting), total or per capita, etc. The data can also be downloaded. Go explore.

An interesting post by the eia and the title answers the question: Most U.S. coal is mined in the West, but most coal mining jobs are in the East by Elesia Fasching (11/8/2022).

In 2021, 60% of the country’s coal was produced in the western United States, but only 28% of workers in the coal mining industry worked there, based on data from our Annual Coal Report. This difference is related to the technologies used in the East and West; surface mines in the West can use massive mining equipment to extract large amounts of coal with relatively fewer workers.

Another interesting fact:

In the United States, coal is primarily used for electricity generation. The Clean Air Act of 1970, and subsequent amendments in 1977 and 1990, restricted sulfur emissions from coal-fired power plants. One way for plants to meet the emissions regulations was to burn low-sulfur coal, most of which is found in the West. The resulting growth in demand for low-sulfur coal expanded western coal production, especially in the Powder River Basin.

There is another graph and links to data in the article.

The UNESCO press release, UNESCO finds that some iconic World Heritage glaciers will disappear by 2050 by François Wibaux (11/3/2022) provides a list of glaciers likely to be gone by 2050. For example,

According to available data, glaciers in all World Heritage sites in Africa will very likely be gone by 2050, incl. Kilimanjaro National Park and Mount Kenya

Glaciers in Yellowstone National Park (United States of America) – very likely to disappear by 2050

Glaciers in Yosemite National Park (United States of America) – very likely to disappear by 2050

The graph here is from the full report (link in the press release) which also contains some useful tables of data. A quote  speaking calculus in the press release:

But a new study by UNESCO, in partnership with IUCN, shows these glaciers have been retreating at an accelerated rate since 2000 due to CO₂ emissions, which are warming temperatures. They are currently losing 58 billion tons of ice every year – equivalent to the combined annual water use of France and Spain– and are responsible for nearly 5% of observed global sea-level rise.

Why does this all matter:

Half of humanity depends directly or indirectly on glaciers as their water source for domestic use, agriculture, and power. Glaciers are also pillars of biodiversity, feeding many ecosystems.

In the past I’ve posted about pew surveys presenting very split opinions by the D and the R teams. Today we have an interesting one within the D team in the Pew article Violent crime is a key midterm voting issue, but what does the data say? by John  Gramlich (10/31/2022). Key quote:

Differences by race are especially pronounced among Democratic registered voters. While 82% of Black Democratic voters say violent crime is very important to their vote this year, only a third of White Democratic voters say the same.

There are a couple of graphs in the article and plenty of quantitative information. What is particularly nice is the discussion about views on violent crime and some disconnects. The article does a great job of discussion possible reasons for this disconnect.

How we answer this questions depends on what we mean by best and the comparison group. For today we’ll look at the share of income by the top 1% and compare mostly western Europe countries. The graph here is from the world income database. It is good to be in the top 1% in the U.S. where they take home home 19% of the countries income in 2021. China is next at 14%. Note that this is a statement of the share of income and not what the income is.

The link will take you to the page where the graph is from. There is also a map colored by ranges of income by the top 1% and if you click on the country in the map it is added to the time series. The U.S. just missed the top color of 19-31% (I’m assuming it starts at greater than 19). Try to guess the countries in the top category and which one is tops at 31%. There is also a link to download the data, as well as other indicators to choose from.

Some good news today. NOAA has an update on the Antarctic ozone hole in the article Antarctic ozone hole slightly smaller in 2022 (10/26/2022).

The hole in the ozone layer — the portion of the stratosphere that protects our planet from the sun’s ultraviolet rays — is continuing to decrease. The hole over Antarctica had an average area of 8.91 million square miles (23.2 million square kilometers). That measurement is slightly smaller than the extent of 8.99 million square miles (23.3 million square kilometers) reached last year, and well below the average seen in 2006 when the hole size peaked.

And

“Over time, steady progress is being made and the hole is getting smaller,” said Paul Newman, chief scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “We see some wavering as weather changes and other factors make the numbers wiggle slightly from day to day and week to week. But overall, we see it decreasing through the last two decades. Eliminating ozone-depleting substances through the Montreal Protocol is shrinking the hole.”

Ozone hole data can be found at NASA Ozone Watch and there is a project on the Calculus Projects page.

If you pay attention to my monthly global temperature updates you might get the impression that global warming has slowed or even stopped. One key variable here is the ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation). The graph here is from NOAA’s Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño | September 2022 Global Climate Report:

Several observations are apparent in the figure. First, nearly every month since the late 1970s has been above the 20^th century average, and has generally warmed through the period. Second, El Niño-like conditions (those months in red) tend to be warmer than neighboring periods, and La Niña-like conditions (blue) tend to be cooler. Third, protracted El Niño-like episodes tend to warm through the event, while La Niña-like episodes tend to cool through the event. Fourth, and finally, there are exceptions to all of the above points.

We haven’t had an El Niño event since 2018-2019 and have been in a La Niña period for quite some time. We have generally been warmer over the last year than all but the last two El Niño events. Fear not, we’ll set records again when the next El Niño comes around. BTW, this a great graph which shows how adding a third variable by way of color reveals important information.