Currently, 2022 is the record minimum for Antarctic sea ice extent, but based on the graph here from the Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph from NSIDC 2023 seems primed to beat that record. The Charctic interactive Sea Ice Graph is a fun tool that lets users select years to graph. The menu at the top allows for downloading images as well as data.
You probably looked at the graph already and know the answer, Florida. The graph is from the Census Bureau article New Florida Estimates Show Nation’s Third-Largest State Reaching Historic Milestone by Marc Perry, Luke Rogers and Kristie Wilder (12/22/2022). This leaves us with more questions than answers, which we’ll get to. First,
After decades of rapid population increase, Florida now is the nation’s fastest-growing state for the first time since 1957, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 population estimates released today.
Florida’s population increased by 1.9% to 22,244,823 between 2021 and 2022, surpassing Idaho, the previous year’s fastest-growing state.
Florida wins by percent but did Florida add the most population?
Increasing by 470,708 people since July 2021, Texas was the largest-gaining state in the nation, reaching a total population of 30,029,572. By crossing the 30-million-population threshold this past year, Texas joins California as the only states with a resident population above 30 million. Growth in Texas last year was fueled by gains from all three components: net domestic migration (230,961), net international migration (118,614), and natural increase (118,159).
Florida was the fastest-growing state in 2022, with an annual population increase of 1.9%, resulting in a total resident population of 22,244,823.
If Florida grew by 1.9% and was the fastest, what was the U.S. growth?
After a historically low rate of change between 2020 and 2021, the U.S. resident population increased by 0.4%, or 1,256,003, to 333,287,557 in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 national and state population estimates and components of change released today.
The last two quotes are from the Census Bureau press release Growth in U.S. Population Shows Early Indication of Recovery Amid COVID-19 Pandemic (12/22/2022). Plenty of QL uses for these articles and you can follow the link in the last quote for data.
The world ban blog looks at fertilizer prices in the post Fertilizer prices ease but affordability and availability issues linger by John Baffes and Wee Chian Koh (1/5/2023). In Europe
The sharp increase in natural gas prices in Europe has led to widespread production cutbacks in ammonia—an important input for nitrogen fertilizers.However, input costs have declined in recent months due to increase imports of liquefied natural for national reserves in Europe as well as expectations of a milder winter. This could allow some shuttered nitrogen fertilizer production facilities in Europe to resume operations.
Supply concerns have been exacerbated by China’s extension of export restrictions on fertilizers until the end of 2022 in order to maintain domestic availability. DAP exports from China, which accounts for 30% of global trade in DAP, fell by nearly 50% (y/y) during the first ten months of 2022. Meanwhile, Chinese urea exports declined by about 60% (y/y) over the same period.
There are four graphs and a link to the Commodity Markets page that has a bunch of data.
The cost of legos vary around the globe and the article The Countries that Pay the Most and Least for Lego by Jess Peace.
But LEGO also tells a tiny tale about world economics. The price of LEGO differs depending on the country where you shop. In fact, TheToyZone found a 744% difference between the average price of LEGO in the most and least expensive markets.
We researched the prices of eight popular LEGO sets in marketplaces across roughly 200 countries where new LEGO sets are sold and totaled up the average price for each territory. Then we converted our findings to US dollars and ranked the final figures to uncover the countries that pay more for their LEGO.
There are a bunch of graphics like the one copied here and you can zoom in to read all the prices. One has to appreciate the graphics and there is good QL info in the article.
I’m going to officially take a couple of weeks off. I passed 500 post this year and I’ve only missed a few of my biweekly posts. I’ll be back in 2023.
The World Bank blog post Oil prices remain volatile amid demand pessimism and constrained supply by Peter Nagle and Kaltrina Temaj (12/16/2022) is a overview of the oil market. There are seven graphs but one, U.S. strategic reserves, caught my attention and is copied here.
These releases have sharply reduced the level of strategic reserves—for example, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently at its lowest level since 1984—reducing available buffers in the event of future disruptions to supply. Conversely, the U.S. administration has announced it intends to start to refill the SPR at a price of about $70/bbl, potentially putting a floor under prices.
One other fact of interest:
The actual reduction in production in November was much smaller than that (around 0.5 mb/d), largely because many members were already producing well below their target due to operational issues and capacity constraints. Indeed, even after the reduction in the production target, the group’s actual production was still short by 1.7mb/d. Spare production among the group remains low by historical standards, at around 3.5 mb/d or 3.5 percent of global oil demand.
Ample quantitative information in the article along with rates for calculus. There aren’t links to data but the sources are cited and shouldn’t be too hard to find.
From NOAA’s November 2022 Global Climate Report:
The November 2022 global surface temperature departure was the ninth highest for November in the 143-year record at 0.76°C (1.37°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F). Despite ranking among the ten warmest Novembers on record, this November was the coolest November since 2014. November 2022 marked the 46th consecutive November and the 455th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average.
A few of highlights:
Europe tied 2000 for its third-warmest November on record.
The contiguous U.S. had a November that was 0.7°F cooler than average.
However, New Zealand recorded its warmest November on record according to its state meteorological agency. The warmest three Novembers in New Zealand have all occurred since 2019.
Time series data is available near the top of the page.
The eia post Natural gas consumption in the industrial sector has grown slowly in recent years by Mike Kopalek (12/12/2022) provides the graph copied here. What may be more interesting is what all this natural gas is used for. A few highlights:
Natural gas used to produce fertilizer is one of the largest chemical feedstocks.
Methanol (CH3OH), a natural gas-derived substance that’s widely used as a precursor for chemical derivatives, is another one of the largest chemical feedstock uses for natural gas. In recent years, the United States added significant methanol production capacity, particularly in Texas and Louisiana.
Crude oil refineries are an important natural gas consumer as well, accounting for about 14% of all industrial natural gas consumption in 2021.
Read the article for the details. There are links to the data source.
The answer to the question depends on where you live, which will dictate the odds of snow on the ground on Dec 25. If you aren’t sure then take a look at the map on the NOAA’s climate.gov article Interactive map: Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? by Rebecca Lindsey and Susan Osborne (12/6/2022).
The interactive map on the page allows you to zoom in on a dot and get information about the chance of at least an inch of snow on the ground on Dec 25. Here in Ithaca we have a 51% chance of at least an inch of snow on the ground. The page includes links to other maps and at the bottom there are links to other snow related resources. There is a link to download a spreadsheet of the data which includes the state and location name, along with elevation and the chance of snow. Is there relationship between elevation and snow on Dec 25? This seems like a stats project in the making.
In a follow up to the last post, How much has sea level risen locally? (12/1/2022), we have the IPCC Sea Level Projection Tool. The NOAA sea level trends tool looks at the historic data and adds linear regression lines. The IPCC tool has projections based on the different IPCC scenarios. For example, when you first land on the page you will see blue dots on a map. A dot with a number means there are a cluster of dots nearby so zoom in. I went to the Miami beach dot. Click on the dot and then click full projections. This will bring you to a page with two interactive maps. The first is a curve of seal level change (relative to the 1995-2014 baseline) projected out to 2150. You can select one of the six IPCC scenarios.
The other graph, seen here, allows you to select an increase in sea level and provides estimates for when that will occur, with the black circle being the median year. The graph here is the data at which we see about one foot of sea level rise in Miami. In both graphs there is a link to download the data.
A related article from NASA, NASA Study: Rising Sea Level Could Exceed Estimates for U.S. Coasts by Sally Younger (11/15/2022) provides some interesting context such as:
The hazards of rising sea level are amplified by natural variabilities on Earth.
For instance, by the mid-2030s, every U.S. coast will experience more intense high-tide floods due to a wobble in the Moon’s orbit that occurs every 18.6 years. Hamlington said that this lunar cycle, in combination with rising sea level, is projected to worsen the impacts of high-tide flooding during the 2030s and 2040s.
If you’d like local trends of sea level rise then check out NOAA’s Sea Level Trends page.
The sea level trends measured by tide gauges that are presented here are local relative sea level (RSL) trends as opposed to the global sea level trend. Tide gauge measurements are made with respect to a local fixed reference on land. RSL is a combination of the sea level rise and the local vertical land motion.
On the landing page you are greeted with a map with colored arrows. The arrows point up for an increase and down for a decrease in sea level locally. The color of the arrow is represents magnitude. Click on an arrow to get details. For instance for Ocean City, MD we learn
The relative sea level trend is 6.05 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.73 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1975 to 2021 which is equivalent to a change of 1.98 feet in 100 years.
Note that the 100 year projection assume a linear increase, which may not be the case. The pop up box includes links to four times of graphs. The one presented here is the linear trend graph. Under the graph for average seasonal cycle we learn
The average seasonal cycle of mean sea level, caused by regular fluctuations in coastal temperatures, salinities, winds, atmospheric pressures, and ocean currents, is shown along with each month’s 95% confidence interval.
The graphs include links to the data. Great QL resource and a place to get ample time series data.