Sustainability Math A Quantitative Literacy and Mathematics Resource for Instructors

This first appeared on my QTRS Sept 19, 2024 post at Briefed by Data. If you like data and graphs and are really curious, you should subscribe (for free) to Briefed by Data.

Here is your monthly global temperature anomaly update. A bit of a surprise that Aug 2024 was a record for August. Just barely, but yet a record. One month isn’t a trend, and there is a fair amount of variability in the data. In fact, we have two instances below where a La Niña year beat out the previous year that was an El Niño. Still, it is worth noting.

Note: This first appeared on my Briefed by Data site. Here is my monthly update of temperature anomalies. As you’ll see, June 2024 did set a record, but when you look at the all-months graph, the last black bar is no higher than some past neutral ENSO months. Here is what NOAA has to say about June 2024 (bold mine):

June 2024 was the warmest June on record for the globe in NOAA’s 175-year record. The June global surface temperature was 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F). This is 0.15°C (0.27°F) warmer than the previous June record set last year, and the 13th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures. This ties with May 2015-May 2016 for the longest record warm global temperature streak in the modern record (since 1980). June 2024 marked the 48th consecutive June with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.

Global land-only June temperature also was warmest on record at 1.75°C (3.15°F) above average. The ocean-only temperature also ranked warmest on record for June at 0.98°C (1.76°F) above average, 0.05°C (0.09°F) warmer than the previous record warm June last year, and the 15th-consecutive monthly ocean record high. These record temperatures occurred under ENSO-neutral conditions. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January).

As we head into La Niña, we should expect anomalies to be around 2°F by following the blue bar trend in the all-month graph. Overall, we should expect that we won’t set anomaly records each month, but we will likely set La Niña anomalies records; the blue bars are increasing themselves.

Note: Please be aware that I mostly post on my Briefed by Data substack. If you like sustainaiblitymath then you may very well like Briefed by Data. For example, this graph and one with all months can be found in this post. Please check it out.

As you can see, May 2024 was a record for May, but when we look at all months, the El Niño effect is clearly fading. In the all-month graph, the May 2024 anomaly is in line with recent neutral conditions. Here is what NOAA had to say about May 2024. It is almost as if you can predict ENSO by the monthly anomaly

May had a record-high monthly global ocean surface temperature for the 14th consecutive month. El Niño conditions that emerged in June 2023 were replaced by ENSO-neutral conditions during the past month, and according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January).

Time series data can be found at the top of the NOAA page.

With El Niño still hanging around April set a record, but it is in the pattern we would expect. A record, but not surprising.

With El Niño still hanging around April set a record, but it is in the pattern we would expect. A record, but not surprising.

Here is what NOAA has to say for April 2024 (data can be found there):

Global land-only April temperature was warmest on record at 1.97°C (3.55°F) above average. The ocean-only temperature also ranked warmest on record for April at 1.03°C (1.85°F) above average, 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the second warmest April of 2023, and the 13th-consecutive monthly ocean record high. These temperatures occurred as the current El Niño episode nears its end. El Niño conditions that emerged in June 2023 weakened further in April, and according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a transition from El Niño to ENSO–neutral is likely in the next month, with odds of La Niña developing by June–August (49% chance) or July–September 2024 (69% chance).

You can find the all-month graph and other news over at the Briefed by Data post QTRS.

According to NOAA

March 2024 was the warmest March on record for the globe in NOAA’s 175-year record. The March global surface temperature was 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 20th-century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F). This is 0.01°C ( °F) warmer than the previous March record set in 2016, and the tenth consecutive month of record-high global temperatures. March 2024 marked the 48th consecutive March with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.

You’ll find the same type of graph, but for all months, on my Briefed by Data site post Quick Takes. You’ll find the data at the NOAA link above.

Here is the February anomaly showing that 2024 was barely a record anomaly for February, which is not surprising given it is expected to be an El Niño month. Overall, it was still one of the top anomaly months. You’ll find this graph, the full anomaly graph of all months, and more at the Briefed by Data post Quick Takes and Random Stuff on March 21, 2024.

Nope. Wind and solar energy have increased, but so have coal, natural gas, and oil. In fact, if we look at the trends for fossil fuel use, it isn’t clear that wind and solar have any impact. I provide graphs for all five energy sources—the one here is for oil—in my World Energy Consumption post on Briefed by Data.

January did set a new record for temperature, but only by a small amount. The El Niño event seems to be slowing. You’ll find the all-month graph of temperature anomalies and more in the February 21 Quick Takes and Random Stuff post on Briefed by Data.

On my Briefed by Data site, I’ve started doing a monthly post called Classroom Connections. The idea is to list a number of articles where the math could possibly be used in the classroom. The level ranges from engaging graphs and basic math to modeling and data science. For example (related to the graph here),

This paper, Electric and gasoline vehicle total cost of ownership across US cities (1/3/2024), goes through the calculations to estimate the return on investment of an electric vehicle. The math is just arithmetic, but a lot can be done with just arithmetic. Great for a project of some sort, and more can be done. For example, if the payoff for the care is 10 years, but you only plan to keep it for 5 years, is it worth it? Can it be resold to make up for the initial investment? What economic level does one need to be at to be able to make the investment in an EV as opposed to an ICE?

Find more examples at Classroom connections for February 3, 2024.

From Past disturbances and local conditions influence the recovery rates of coral reefs (1/10/2024)

Since the 1970s, coral cover in the Atlantic Ocean has decreased fourfold, and recovery rates following disturbances have been relatively low, except in the Antilles where recovery rates have recently increased. By contrast, coral cover and recovery rates in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have remained moderate over time, and recovery rates have even increased in some ecoregions such as in the Coral Triangle region.

More on this and other stuff in this past week’s Quick Takes at Briefed by Data.