Sustainability Math A Quantitative Literacy and Mathematics Resource for Instructors

Note: Please be aware that I mostly post on my Briefed by Data substack. If you like sustainaiblitymath then you may very well like Briefed by Data. For example, this graph and one with all months can be found in this post. Please check it out.

As you can see, May 2024 was a record for May, but when we look at all months, the El Niño effect is clearly fading. In the all-month graph, the May 2024 anomaly is in line with recent neutral conditions. Here is what NOAA had to say about May 2024. It is almost as if you can predict ENSO by the monthly anomaly

May had a record-high monthly global ocean surface temperature for the 14th consecutive month. El Niño conditions that emerged in June 2023 were replaced by ENSO-neutral conditions during the past month, and according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January).

Time series data can be found at the top of the NOAA page.

With El Niño still hanging around April set a record, but it is in the pattern we would expect. A record, but not surprising.

With El Niño still hanging around April set a record, but it is in the pattern we would expect. A record, but not surprising.

Here is what NOAA has to say for April 2024 (data can be found there):

Global land-only April temperature was warmest on record at 1.97°C (3.55°F) above average. The ocean-only temperature also ranked warmest on record for April at 1.03°C (1.85°F) above average, 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the second warmest April of 2023, and the 13th-consecutive monthly ocean record high. These temperatures occurred as the current El Niño episode nears its end. El Niño conditions that emerged in June 2023 weakened further in April, and according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a transition from El Niño to ENSO–neutral is likely in the next month, with odds of La Niña developing by June–August (49% chance) or July–September 2024 (69% chance).

You can find the all-month graph and other news over at the Briefed by Data post QTRS.

According to NOAA

March 2024 was the warmest March on record for the globe in NOAA’s 175-year record. The March global surface temperature was 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 20th-century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F). This is 0.01°C ( °F) warmer than the previous March record set in 2016, and the tenth consecutive month of record-high global temperatures. March 2024 marked the 48th consecutive March with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.

You’ll find the same type of graph, but for all months, on my Briefed by Data site post Quick Takes. You’ll find the data at the NOAA link above.

Here is the February anomaly showing that 2024 was barely a record anomaly for February, which is not surprising given it is expected to be an El Niño month. Overall, it was still one of the top anomaly months. You’ll find this graph, the full anomaly graph of all months, and more at the Briefed by Data post Quick Takes and Random Stuff on March 21, 2024.

Nope. Wind and solar energy have increased, but so have coal, natural gas, and oil. In fact, if we look at the trends for fossil fuel use, it isn’t clear that wind and solar have any impact. I provide graphs for all five energy sources—the one here is for oil—in my World Energy Consumption post on Briefed by Data.

January did set a new record for temperature, but only by a small amount. The El Niño event seems to be slowing. You’ll find the all-month graph of temperature anomalies and more in the February 21 Quick Takes and Random Stuff post on Briefed by Data.

On my Briefed by Data site, I’ve started doing a monthly post called Classroom Connections. The idea is to list a number of articles where the math could possibly be used in the classroom. The level ranges from engaging graphs and basic math to modeling and data science. For example (related to the graph here),

This paper, Electric and gasoline vehicle total cost of ownership across US cities (1/3/2024), goes through the calculations to estimate the return on investment of an electric vehicle. The math is just arithmetic, but a lot can be done with just arithmetic. Great for a project of some sort, and more can be done. For example, if the payoff for the care is 10 years, but you only plan to keep it for 5 years, is it worth it? Can it be resold to make up for the initial investment? What economic level does one need to be at to be able to make the investment in an EV as opposed to an ICE?

Find more examples at Classroom connections for February 3, 2024.

From Past disturbances and local conditions influence the recovery rates of coral reefs (1/10/2024)

Since the 1970s, coral cover in the Atlantic Ocean has decreased fourfold, and recovery rates following disturbances have been relatively low, except in the Antilles where recovery rates have recently increased. By contrast, coral cover and recovery rates in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have remained moderate over time, and recovery rates have even increased in some ecoregions such as in the Coral Triangle region.

More on this and other stuff in this past week’s Quick Takes at Briefed by Data.

I posted this update on global temperatures in my most recent Quick Takes on Briefed by Data. As expected, 2023 set a record for November temperature, as can be seen in the graph. The last bar in black will be classified as El Niño, and while the record looks extreme, it is largely following the pattern of the red bars. From the NOAA report for November 2023, which includes links to the data:

The November global surface temperature was 1.44°C (2.59°F) above the 20th-century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F), making it the warmest November on record. This was 0.38°C (0.68°F) above the previous record from November 2015. November 2023 marked the 47th-consecutive November and the 537th-consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th-century average.

November saw a record-high monthly global ocean surface temperature for the eighth consecutive month. El Niño conditions that emerged in June continued into November, and according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center there is a 60% chance that El Niño will continue through April–June 2024.

Here is the graph for all months for context. Again, note that the last few months are in line with the anomalies during El Niño. I’ll have more to say about this in a future post.

The October temperature anomaly was a top-5 anomaly overall and a record for October, but this shouldn’t be surprising. If one follows the red bars and El Niño months, the 2023 anomaly follows that trend, and the expectation is that October 2023 will officially be an El Niño month. Expect more record monthly anomalies because (from NOAA)

El Niño conditions that emerged in June continued into October, and according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center there is an 80% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (March–May 2024).

NOAA has the time series data. More on this and other notes can be found in my Briefed by Data Quick Takes post.