Sustainability Math A Quantitative Literacy and Mathematics Resource for Instructors

The map says it all from the eia article Two-thirds of North America is at risk of energy shortfalls in high summer heat, NERC says (6/26/2023).

If temperatures spike this summer, parts of the United States could face electricity supply shortages as demand for cooling increases, according to analysis by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The latest summer reliability report from NERC warns that two-thirds of North America is at risk of energy shortfalls this summer during periods of extremely high electricity demand.

There is a link to the data on the page.

If you like data based articles check out my other site on substack: Briefed  by Data

From the eia article As solar capacity grows, duck curves are getting deeper in California (June 21, 2023):

As more solar capacity has come online in California, grid operators at the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) have observed a drop in net load (or the demand remaining after subtracting variable renewable generation) in the middle of the day when solar generation tends to be highest. When graphed for a typical day, the pattern created by the midday dip in the net load curve, followed by a steep rise in the evenings when solar generation drops off, looks like the outline of a duck, so this pattern is often called a duck curve. As solar capacity in California continues to grow, the midday dip in net load is getting lower, presenting challenges for grid operators.

Two challenges with solar energy:

The first challenge is grid stress. The extreme swing in demand for electricity from conventional power plants from midday to late evenings, when energy demand is still high but solar generation has dropped off, means that conventional power plants (such as natural gas-fired plants) must quickly ramp up electricity production to meet consumer demand.

The other challenge is economic. The dynamics of the duck curve can challenge the traditional economics of dispatchable power plants because the factors contributing to the curve reduce the amount of time a conventional power plant operates, which results in reduced energy revenues. If the reduced revenues make the plants uneconomical to maintain, the plants may retire without a dispatchable replacement. Less dispatchable electricity makes it harder for grid managers to balance electricity supply and demand in a system with wide swings in net demand.

There are links to the data.

If you like data based articles check out my other side: Briefed  by Data

From the NOAA May 2023 Global Climate Report:

May 2023 was the third-warmest May for the globe in NOAA’s 174-year record. The May global surface temperature was 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th-century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F). The past nine Mays have ranked among the 10 warmest on record. May 2023 marked the 47th consecutive May and the 531st consecutive month with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.

Note that May wasn’t far off a record. This shouldn’t be a surprise because

Global ocean surface temperature hit a record high for May, which marks the second-consecutive month where ocean surface temperatures broke a record. On June 8, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced an El Niño Advisory alert status; weak El Niño conditions emerged in May as above-average sea surface temperatures strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño conditions are now present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023–24.

El Niño periods are much warmer. See the Briefed by Data post The Three Trends of Climate Change. The time series data is at the top of the page.

I noted in March that the Antarctic set a new minimum of sea ice. As the Antarctic heads into winter sea ice is crushing the minimum set in 2022. It is 1.29msk (10% ish) below the record min curve of 2022 and almost 2.5msk below the median. This is an interactive chart from the NSIDC and the data is available.

If you like data and charts check out Briefed by Data and follow on twitter @BriefedByData.

From the eia article Monthly U.S. propane exports in March 2023 reached a record high by Josh Eiermann (6/6/2023)

U.S. propane exports reached a record 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in March 2023, the highest level since we began collecting this data in 1973. Propane is consumed globally for space heating and is used as a petrochemical feedstock.

The graph shows a noticeable increase to Asia. Why?

U.S. propane exports to Asia have increased rapidly in recent years, driven in part by the region’s increasing demand for propylene, a chemical that can be produced from propane. Propylene is used to manufacture polypropylene, a versatile plastic with many uses, including in car interiors, packaging, and personal protective equipment.

There is one other graph and links to data.

If you would like to know if you should breathe the air go to the Fire and Smoke Map. You see an image like the one here. Find you location on the map. Click the dot to get a pop up window with extra information including an interactive time series chart of air quality for the last week. About the site:

The AirNow Fire and Smoke Map provides information that you can use to help protect your health from wildfire smoke. Use this map to see:

– Current particle pollution air quality information for your location;
– Fire locations and smoke plumes;
– Smoke Forecast Outlooks, where available; and,
– Recommendations for actions to take to protect yourself from smoke. These recommendations were developed by EPA scientists who are experts in air quality and health.

The Map is a collaborative effort between the U.S. Forest Service (USFS)-led Interagency Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

For an interacative map of fires and smoke movement see firesmoke.ca.

EPI gives an overview of the economic state of the class of 2023 in their Class of 2023 post by Elise Gould, Katherine deCourcy and Jori Kandra (5/24/2023). Two findings:

Workers of all ages have experienced stronger-than-usual wage growth in the pandemic business cycle (February 2020 to March 2023)—even after accounting for high inflation—but young workers were not left behind like they have been in previous business cycles.

Entry-level high school graduates (ages 17–20) saw real wage growth three times as fast as entry-level college graduates (ages 21–24) in the pandemic business cycle.

The figure here is one of four with data available in the article. The interesting thing here is the Hispanic pay which is about $0.85 more than White and Black pay. What explains this? Could there be a regional effect?

Check out my other site Briefed by Data.

From the iea Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends in batteries:

Automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery demand increased by about 65% to 550 GWh in 2022, from about 330 GWh in 2021, primarily as a result of growth in electric passenger car sales, with new registrations increasing by 55% in 2022 relative to 2021.

There are 9 interactive graphs in this article with lots of information. I chose to show the one on supply and demand of lithium.

The increase in battery demand drives the demand for critical materials. In 2022, lithium demand exceeded supply (as in 2021) despite the 180% increase in production since 2017. In 2022, about 60% of lithium, 30% of cobalt and 10% of nickel demand was for EV batteries. Just five years earlier, in 2017, these shares were around 15%, 10% and 2%, respectively. As has already been seen for lithium, mining and processing of these critical minerals will need to increase rapidly to support the energy transition, not only for EVs but more broadly to keep up with the pace of demand for clean energy technologies.

Some of the charts have the data available for download.

Rick Nevin provides updated graphs, one of the four posted here, in his post Update: Juvenile crime still falling fast in 2021 (4/2/2023).

USA arrest rates by age have only been updated through 2020, but juvenile arrest data reported by 10 states (FL, TX, CA, NY, VA, TN, WA, SC, GA, NC) show the trend toward zero juvenile crime continued in 2021. Weighted average data for these 10 states (accounting for about half of the USA population) show the following changes in juvenile arrests from 2020 to 2021:

Burglary: Down 34%
Motor Vehicle Theft: Down 13%
Other Felony Larceny-Theft: Down 28%
Total Felony Property Crime: Down 29%
Robbery: Down 23%
Aggravated Assault: Up 7% (after a 29% decline from 2019 to 2020)
Total Violent Crime: Down 5%.

There is a link to the data and he ends with this:

The impact of birth year trends in lead exposure is the only criminology theory that can explain this extraordinary ongoing decline in juvenile crime.

The eia article Mixed water supply condition across western states affects 2023 hydropower outlook by Lindsay Aramayo (5/10/2023) has this to say

Record-breaking rain and snow in parts of the western United States contribute to our forecast 72% rise in hydropower generation in California this year compared with last year, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). However, below-normal precipitation and a mixed water supply outlook in the Pacific Northwest, which generates a significant portion of the country’s hydropower, offset the forecast increase in hydropower generation in California.

Interestingly,

The Pacific Northwest houses more than one-third of U.S. hydropower capacity and produces about half of the country’s total hydropower, on average.

There is another graph in the article and more about hydropower, as well as links to the data.