If you aren’t good with geography you might think all the rain in California should have Lake Meade rising. As you can see from the graph Lake Mead didn’t rise much this winter and it is heading back down again. At this point dropping below 1040 ft in the next few months is likely. The previous Lake Mead post with links to the data. I’ll check back in a couple of months.
Climate Reanalyzer has an interactive time series chart of ocean temperatures. The dark black line at the top is the current year and shall we say we are in uncharted waters. It would be nice if this graph was colored by ENSO status in the way NOAA has a global temperature graph by ENSO status. Why does this matter? According to a Guardian article:
La Niña periods – characterised by cooling in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and stronger trade winds – have a cooling influence on global temperatures. During El Niño periods, the ocean temperatures in those regions are warmer than usual and global temperatures are pushed up.
After a few years of La Niña we’ll see what El Niño will do to global temps.
The NASA post NASA Uses 30-Year Satellite Record to Track and Project Rising Seas (3/17/2023) has this to say (with calculus language):
Since satellites began observing sea surface height in 1993 with the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon mission, the average global sea level has increased by 3.6 inches (9.1 centimeters), according to NASA’s Sea Level Change science team. The annual rate of rise – or how quickly sea level rise is happening – that researchers expect to see has also increased from 0.08 inches (0.20 centimeters) per year in 1993 to 0.17 inches (0.44 centimeters) per year in 2022. Based on the long-term satellite measurements, the projected rate of sea level rise will hit 0.26 inches (0.66 centimeters) per year by 2050.
Interesting fact in the article:
The 2022 increase was less than the expected annual rate because of a mild La Niña. During years with an especially strong La Niña climate pattern, average global sea level can even temporarily drop because weather patterns shift in a way that leads to more rainfall over land instead of the ocean.
NASA Sea Level page with data.
The calculus projects page has been updated with the most recent data available. Most of the trends didn’t change but solar did and hence there were some changes in the countries used in the graphs. There is also an updated Excel curve fitting directions for those using Excel (consider using R). As before there are csv files that can be accessed directly through R, included in each tile, or other software. If you have any thought about the page then let me know. Up next is the statistics projects page.
Note my resume if you are in need of some freelance data support or any other project that you think my skills would fit.
The World Bank article March 2023 global poverty update from the World Bank: the challenge of estimating poverty in the pandemic (3/29/2023) reports on poverty updates:
Global poverty estimates were updated today on the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP). This update includes new regional poverty aggregates in 2020 and 2021 for Latin America and the Caribbean, and in 2020 for Europe and Central Asia, and the group of advanced countries. These are the regions for which we now have sufficient survey data available during the COVID-19 pandemic. In total, 113 new country-years have been added, bringing the total number of surveys to more than 2,100.
The summary with calculus terms:
It is still the case that global poverty has been falling since the 1990s, and at a slower rate since 2014 (World Bank 2022). Extreme poverty has been falling in all regions, except the Middle East and North Africa due to conflict and fragility (World Bank 2020).
The PIP itself is a page worth exploring. It doesn’t look like much but if you start clicking you’ll find there is much to discover. Try the calculator on the bottom right of the graph or trying clicking a country.
First some good news. The eia report Renewable generation surpassed coal and nuclear in the U.S. electric power sector in 2022 by Katherine Antonio (3/27/2023) notes
Last year, the U.S. electric power sector produced 4,090 million megawatthours (MWh) of electric power. In 2022, generation from renewable sources—wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and geothermal—surpassed coal-fired generation in the electric power sector for the first time. Renewable generation surpassed nuclear generation for the first time in 2021 and continued to provide more electricity than nuclear generation last year.
On the other hand, in 2021 solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal made up 18.5% of electricity generation and that moved to only 20.25% in 2022. You can get his data from the electricity data browser from the eia. It is a great tool that provides graphs and downloads of the selected data.
There has been some talk in the news about increasing maternal mortality in the U.S. This is due to the new CDC report Maternal Mortality Rates in the United States, 2021 by Donna L. Hoyert (3/16/2023). The graph here is one from the report. Clearly the upward trend started before COVID and there is a racial difference. We should note that another graph shows upward trends by age group too.
Rates in 2021 were 20.4 deaths per 100,000 live births for women under age 25, 31.3 for those aged 25–39, and 138.5 for those aged 40 and over (Figure 2 and Table). The rate for women aged 40 and over was 6.8 times higher than the rate for women under age 25. Differences in the rates between age groups were statistically significant. The increases in the rates between 2020 and 2021 for each of these age groups were statistically significant.
The article includes a table of data and the number of births women 40+ have increased, which might explain some, but not all, of the increase. Either way, the data is waiting for analysis is a statistics class.
As to the racial differences. In 2019 Kevin Drum reported on this in his post How Can We Reduce Black Maternal Mortality? He makes a case that the differences aren’t explained by racism; it is longish and worth reading. A few quotes:
The differences in allostatic load are tiny—about the equivalent of one IQ point on an intelligence test—and Hispanics have a higher allostatic load than either blacks or whites but the lowest maternal mortality rate.
Poor blacks report less stress and higher levels of optimism than both poor whites and poor Hispanics. Put all this together and the toxic stress/weathering hypotheses look shaky.
What it seems to tell us is that there’s a difference in when black mothers die. Any pregnancy-related death within a year of delivery is counted as maternal mortality, and the difference in IHM rates suggests that in white hospitals black mothers die at high rates in the hospital, while in black hospitals they die at high rates after going home.
NASA calls this a climate spiral. The visualization is well done, so watch it. The NASA page includes a link to the data used to make the visualization.
There is a general narrative that younger generation are doing worse then older generations. When a narrative is “common knowledge” it is worth investigating if it is true or not. For the 35-44 year age range Kevin Drum has done just that in his post The (not kids anymore) are doing alright (3/2/2023). He has four graphs one of which is copied here. Some facts:
However, right now their unemployment rate is 2.6%, as low as it’s ever been.
Full-time workers are being paid more today than full-time workers of 20 years ago.
As with the full-time chart, annual earnings are higher now for 35-44 year-olds than they were 20 years ago.
This is not to say everything is perfect, but it does provide evidence that life isn’t that bad for the 35-44 cohort. The question then is why does this narrative exist? The frustrating part here is this data is easily available at the BLS. Maybe journalist could take the time to look up a few facts before they make statements.
From the NOAA article A look at all 173 of NOAA’s new global temperature maps by Rebecca Lindsey (2/17/2023):
Last week, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information released a major update to the agency’s global surface temperature dataset. The new product tracks temperatures back to 1850, adding 30 additional years to the historical record, and it has complete geographic coverage over data-sparse areas at the poles.
In honor of the new release, Climate.gov has made a poster-size image showing global temperature patterns for every year in the new data set.
Enjoy the poster and put it to good use.