Tag Archives: climate change

Note: This first appeared on my Briefed by Data site. Here is my monthly update of temperature anomalies. As you’ll see, June 2024 did set a record, but when you look at the all-months graph, the last black bar is no higher than some past neutral ENSO months. Here is what NOAA has to say about June 2024 (bold mine):

June 2024 was the warmest June on record for the globe in NOAA’s 175-year record. The June global surface temperature was 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F). This is 0.15°C (0.27°F) warmer than the previous June record set last year, and the 13th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures. This ties with May 2015-May 2016 for the longest record warm global temperature streak in the modern record (since 1980). June 2024 marked the 48th consecutive June with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.

Global land-only June temperature also was warmest on record at 1.75°C (3.15°F) above average. The ocean-only temperature also ranked warmest on record for June at 0.98°C (1.76°F) above average, 0.05°C (0.09°F) warmer than the previous record warm June last year, and the 15th-consecutive monthly ocean record high. These record temperatures occurred under ENSO-neutral conditions. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January).

As we head into La Niña, we should expect anomalies to be around 2°F by following the blue bar trend in the all-month graph. Overall, we should expect that we won’t set anomaly records each month, but we will likely set La Niña anomalies records; the blue bars are increasing themselves.

Note: Please be aware that I mostly post on my Briefed by Data substack. If you like sustainaiblitymath then you may very well like Briefed by Data. For example, this graph and one with all months can be found in this post. Please check it out.

As you can see, May 2024 was a record for May, but when we look at all months, the El Niño effect is clearly fading. In the all-month graph, the May 2024 anomaly is in line with recent neutral conditions. Here is what NOAA had to say about May 2024. It is almost as if you can predict ENSO by the monthly anomaly

May had a record-high monthly global ocean surface temperature for the 14th consecutive month. El Niño conditions that emerged in June 2023 were replaced by ENSO-neutral conditions during the past month, and according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January).

Time series data can be found at the top of the NOAA page.

According to NOAA

March 2024 was the warmest March on record for the globe in NOAA’s 175-year record. The March global surface temperature was 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 20th-century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F). This is 0.01°C ( °F) warmer than the previous March record set in 2016, and the tenth consecutive month of record-high global temperatures. March 2024 marked the 48th consecutive March with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.

You’ll find the same type of graph, but for all months, on my Briefed by Data site post Quick Takes. You’ll find the data at the NOAA link above.

Here is the February anomaly showing that 2024 was barely a record anomaly for February, which is not surprising given it is expected to be an El Niño month. Overall, it was still one of the top anomaly months. You’ll find this graph, the full anomaly graph of all months, and more at the Briefed by Data post Quick Takes and Random Stuff on March 21, 2024.

September 2023 set a record for a monthly anomaly, but when you read something that says it was surprising, outrageous, crazy, etc., you are being misled. As far as I’m concerned, this is the media making matters worse. A new record anomaly like September is expected, and, in fact, it will happen again. Suggesting that scientists didn’t know this implies that they aren’t credible. Please read the full argument here and while you are there, subscribe to my Substack Briefed by Data. You can subscribe for free and get data-based articles right in your inbox.

Summary from NOAA, which has the data available:

The September global surface temperature was 1.44°C (2.59°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F), making it the warmest September on record. September 2023 marked the 49th-consecutive September and the 535th-consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th-century average. September 2023 was 0.46°C (0.83°F) above the previous record from September 2020, and marks the largest positive monthly global temperature anomaly of any month on record. The September 2023 global temperature anomaly surpassed the previous record-high monthly anomaly from March 2016 by 0.09°C (0.16°F). The past ten Septembers (2014–2023) have been the warmest Septembers on record.

From my post of the same name on Briefed by Data. Figure 1 shows that the August 2023 anomaly was a record for August by a half degree Fahrenheit, or about a 30% increase over the previous record in 2016. Here is what NOAA has to say about August 2023:

The August global surface temperature was 1.25°C (2.25°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F), making it the warmest August on record. This marked the first time an August temperature exceeded 1.0°C (1.8°F) above the long-term average. August 2023 was 0.29°C (0.52°F) warmer than the previous August record from 2016, but the anomaly was 0.10°C (0.18°F) lower than the all-time highest monthly temperature anomaly on record (March 2016). However, the August 2023 temperature anomaly was the third-highest anomaly of any month on record.

Links to the data are in the post, plus two other graphs.

In my recent Briefed by Data post How rising mean temperatures affect maximums I use a simple simulation to help understand climate change and the impact increasing mean temperatures have on maximum temperatures. For example,

We expect a roughly 50% increase in summers with temperatures over 100°F over the first 50 years of the rising temperature scenario, followed by a 5-fold rise during the next 50 years. One important thing to note is that, compared to no change, the slow rise in temperature won’t be felt as much in the first 50 years. In the scenario of rising temperatures, even the difference between the first 50 and the second 50 is tripled. In essence, nothing is noticeably bad until it is.

Read more over at Substack and consider subscribing to my newsletter Briefed by Data.

From NOAA’s June 2023 Global Climate Report:

June 2023 set a record as the warmest June for the globe in NOAA’s 174-year record. The June global surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F). This marked the first time a June temperature exceeded 1°C above the long-term average.

By definition we don’t officially know if June 2023 was an El Niño month (hence the black bar in the graph) but it was emerging and likely will be one. More about June 2023 on my Briefed by Data site.

From the NOAA May 2023 Global Climate Report:

May 2023 was the third-warmest May for the globe in NOAA’s 174-year record. The May global surface temperature was 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th-century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F). The past nine Mays have ranked among the 10 warmest on record. May 2023 marked the 47th consecutive May and the 531st consecutive month with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.

Note that May wasn’t far off a record. This shouldn’t be a surprise because

Global ocean surface temperature hit a record high for May, which marks the second-consecutive month where ocean surface temperatures broke a record. On June 8, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced an El Niño Advisory alert status; weak El Niño conditions emerged in May as above-average sea surface temperatures strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño conditions are now present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023–24.

El Niño periods are much warmer. See the Briefed by Data post The Three Trends of Climate Change. The time series data is at the top of the page.

From NOAA’s April 2023 Global Climate Report:

April 2023 was the fourth-warmest April for the globe in NOAA’s 174-year record. The April global surface temperature was 1.00°C (1.80°F) above the 20th-century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F). The 10 warmest April months have occurred since 2010. April 2023 marked the 49th consecutive April and the 530th consecutive month with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.

Highlights:

Global ocean temperatures set a record high for April at 0.86°C (1.55°F) above the long-term average. This marked the second-highest monthly ocean temperature for any month on record, just 0.01°C (0.02°F) shy of the record-warm ocean temperatures set in January 2016.

The Southern Hemisphere experienced its warmest April and warmest month on record.

The data is available at a link on the top of the page.